Bioclimatic variables and their impact on the potential distribution of Brenneria goodwinii in Europe

Abstract

Brenneria goodwinii is a Gram-negative bacterium associated with the phenomenon of Acute Oak Decline (AOD), which has played a very important role in the decline of oak populations in Europe in recent years. In this paper, the Maxent model was developed to detect the trend in the distribution of B. goodwinii in Europe. Generated from confirmed location data and bioclimatic variables, the Maxent model achieved high predictive accuracy as measured by parameters such as AUC and AUCdiff. Nineteen bioclimatic variables available on the WorldClim portal for the years 1970–2000 were used to create the model. The generated model allows to determine the most useful bioclimatic variables to assess the maximum entropy of the habitat in terms of the occurrence of B. goodwinii. In addition, the model identified areas of Europe where the probabilities of fit for bacteria are >.7. These areas include Great Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Italy.