Self-Rated Health and Subjective Survival Probabilities as Predictors of Mortality

Abstract

This chapter discusses two subjective measurements of mortality likelihood: self-rated health and subjective probabilities of survival. Self-rated health is associated with mortality indirectly, as an indicator of health status, whereas subjective survival probability reflects an individual’s overt assessment of the length of his or her remaining years of life. Both assessments issue from an active cognitive process with two components: the selection of information, and the way in which this information is used. Of the two assessments, self-rated health is more widely used and better known. In very diverse populations, it predicts mortality better than do several more objective health indicators, probably because it is a very inclusive measure and also reflects subtle information from the human organism that is available only to the individual him- or herself. Still, because of different evaluation frameworks, as a predictor of mortality, self-rated health may not be comparable across cultures and age groups. Subjective survival probability parallels actuarial life expectancies, although differently in different genders and age groups, and predicts mortality in middle-aged and older populations. It correlates with self-rated health, but is based also on other information. The evaluation process and the possible sensitivity of the question, particularly in the oldest age groups, are still poorly understood.