Likely impacts of the 2022 heatwave on India’s wheat production

Abstract

The 2022 Indian heatwave impacted key geographies of wheat production in northwestern and central India. It coincided with this crop’s harvest season in the region, and is expected to have considerably reduced national wheat production. Here we provide spatially disaggregated estimates of the likely impact on wheat yield using statistical relationships derived from historical climate and wheat yield data. Compared to a normal year (median of 1992-2021 climate), national wheat production in 2022 is expected to have fallen by 4.5%; some regions may have experienced wheat yield losses of up to 15%. Our analysis can also be analyzed as a proof of concept for using current and forecasted weather data to estimate real-time impact of short-term weather variability on end-of-season crop yields, even while the crop season is ongoing.