Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin-Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of interannual climate variability with increasing attention for its impacts on water and flood management. The impact of ENSO on basin-scale floods during the TRMM period (1998–2013) is examined by using the streamflow outputs from the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE). Significant simultaneous correlations between flood indices and Niño 3.4 appear in many flood-prone river basins during peak flood months across both the tropics and midlatitudes especially for flood frequency and flood duration. Gauged by significant lag-correlations between floods and Niño 3.4, significant ENSO-leading-floods relations are found as well in many river basins in South America, south and southeastern Asia, and northern Africa. These ENSO-floods-relations can greatly enhance understanding of physical mechanisms relevant to the ENSO impact and may also improve the skills of basin-scale monthly-to-seasonal flood forecast, thus allowing for better preparedness and management of flood risks.