Crowd Disasters and Simulation of Panic Situations

Abstract

One of the most tragic collective behaviors is a panic stampede [11.1–11.9], as it often leads to the death of people who are either crushed or trampled down by others. While this behavior is comprehensible in life-threatening situations like fires in crowded buildings [11.10, 11.11], it is hardly understood in cases of a rush for good seats at a pop concert [11.12], or without any obvious reasons. Unfortunately, the frequency of such disasters is increasing [11.12], as growing population densities combined with easier transportation lead to greater mass events like pop concerts, sporting events, and demonstrations. Nevertheless, systematic studies of panics [11.8] are rare [11.5, 11.10, 11.12]. Moreover, there is a scarcity of quantitative theories capable of predicting the dynamics of human crowds [11.13–11.15]. Here we show that simulations of pedestrian behavior can give valuable insights into the mechanisms and preconditions of panic, jamming, and the observed ‘faster-is-slower effect’. We also provide clues to practical ways of minimizing the related tragedies. Furthermore, we identify an optimal strategy for collective problem solving in crisis situations, corresponding to a suitable mixture of individuahstic and herding behavior.