Modeling of future electricity generation and emissions assessment for Pakistan

Abstract

Electricity demand in Pakistan has consistently increased in the past two decades. However, this demand is so far partially met due to insufficient supply, inefficient power plants, high transmission and distribution system losses, lack of effective planning efforts and due coordination. The existing electricity generation also largely depends on the imported fossil fuels, which is a huge burden on the national economy alongside causing colossal loss to the environment. It is also evident from existing government plans that electricity generation from low-cost coal fuels in the near future will further increase the emissions. As such, in this study, following the government's electricity demand forecast, four supply side scenarios for the study period (2013-2035) have been developed using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software tool. These scenarios are Reference scenario (REF) based on the government's power expansion plans, and three alternative scenarios, which include, More Renewable (MRR), More Hydro (MRH), and More Hydro Nuclear (MRHN). Furthermore, the associated gaseous emissions (CO2, SO2, NOX, CH4, N2O) are projected under each of these scenarios. The results of this study reveal that the alternative scenarios are more environmentally friendly than the REF scenario where penetration of planned coal-based power generation plants would be the major sources of emissions. It is, therefore, recommended that the government, apart from implementing the existing plans, should consider harnessing the renewable energy sources as indispensable energy sources in the future energy mix for electricity generation to reduce the fossil-fuel import bill and to contain the emissions.