Évaluation de l'impact économique du crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi (CICE)

Abstract

Open to all private companies, the CICE is equal to 6% of payroll, excluding employer contributions, for wages between 1 and 2.5 SMIC. Representing 20 billion, its funding will be based half on reduction on public expenditures and half on increase of taxes (a reform of VAT from 1 January 2014 and strengthening of environmental taxation). The CICE would lower of 2.6% the labour cost of the private economy with differences by sector: a reduction of the labour cost of 3 % in the construction, 2.8 % in the industry and 2.4 % in the market services. According to our evaluation, conducted using the model e-mod.fr, the CICE is expected to create five years after its inception, about 150 000 jobs by lowering the unemployment rate by 0.6 points and generate an increase of 0.1 % of GDP in 2018.