Modeling the Carbon System

Abstract

Claims that forest cutting during the last few decades has contributed significantly to the buildup in atmospheric CO 2 have cast doubt on the validity of models used to estimate CO 2 uptake by the ocean. In this paper we review the existing models and conclude that the box-diffusion model of Oeschger and his co-workers provides an excellent fit to the average distributions of natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon. We also take the first steps toward a more detailed ocean model which takes into account upwelling in the equatorial zone and deep water formation in the polar zone. The model is calibrated using the distribution of bomb-produced and cosmic ray-produced radiocarbon in the ocean. Preliminary calculations indicate that the fossil fuel CO 2 uptake by this model will be greater than that by the box-diffusion model of Oeschger and others (1975) but not great enough to accommodate a significant decline in the mass of the terrestrial biosphere over the past two decades.