Japanese Food Data Challenge the Claimed Link between Fukushima's Releases and Recently Observed Thyroid Cancer Increase in Japan

Abstract

Internal, high-dose exposure with radioiodine is known to increase the risk for thyroid cancer in children and adolescents. Ingestion of contaminated food is generally regarded a dominant route of internal exposure. We analyzed the huge data set of the post-Fukushima food monitoring campaign and deployed a conservative model for the estimation of the doses to the general public in a worst-case scenario. Our data suggest that the committed equivalent ingestion doses to the thyroids of the affected Japanese public, even in the utmost conservative approach, remained below the limit on ingestion of radioiodine in foodstuffs and beverages of 50 mSv (as thyroid equivalent dose). This level of 50 mSv is also the intervention level for the administration of stable iodine, mainly after inhalation. Our study hence suggests that, based on the food data, the internal exposure of Japanese residents was too low to cause a statistically discernible increase in thyroid cancer, even if the contribution from inhalation is taken into account. The data also indicate that the governmental efforts in the food monitoring campaign were successful and cut the thyroid doses to the public by a factor of approximately 3 compared to a scenario without any monitoring.