Over 100 years of faults interaction, stress accumulation, and creeping implications, on Chaman Fault System, Pakistan

Abstract

The curve-shaped Chaman transform fault between Pakistan and Afghanistan demarks the western boundary of the Indian plate, which is the locus of many catastrophic earthquakes, and this is poorly studied region to understand the earthquake/fault interaction and hazard assessment. Based on earthquake triggering theory, we investigate a sequence of earthquakes comprising five earthquakes that occurred in the Chaman Fault System since 1892. Our results elucidate that three out of four earthquakes are triggered by the preceding earthquakes. The 1935 earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.7 is somewhat an independent earthquake in this sequence, slightly influenced by the 1892 event. The 1935 earthquake significantly loaded either terminus of its rupture with positive stress, which later triggered the 1975 earthquake with 35% of its rupture length where ΔCFS is above triggering threshold value, and 1990 earthquake with 44% of its rupture length in positive stress lobe, on Ghazaband Fault, in the south lobe. Since the 1935 earthquake significantly increased the ΔCFS on either terminus of its rupture, the 2013 earthquake with magnitude Mw 7.7 occurred on Hoshab Fault in the positive stress zone with 23% of its rupture length where ΔCFS is positive. Moreover, the northern locked segment of CF, the southern segment of GBF, southeastern segment of HF and PAF demonstrate a high value of ΔCFS. It could trigger seismicity in these regions, thus requiring arrangements to mitigate any seismic hazards in future.