Role of monsoon gyre in the interannual variation of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific

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Abstract

The south-southeast periphery of a monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific (WNP) is a favorable region for tropical cyclone/tropical depression (TC/TD) genesis. The TC genesis frequency is interannually modulated by the WNP monsoon circulation in response to a change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). These findings from previous studies lead to the hypothesis that the effect of tropical Pacific SST changes on the WNP TC/TD genesis frequency is accomplished through a modulation of the monsoon gyre activity by WNP monsoon circulation variations. The 6-h TC/TD track records and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979-2002 were analyzed to test this hypothesis. Results show that roughly 70% of WNP TC/TD geneses are linked to monsoon gyres. The interannual variation of these geneses is highly correlated (with a correlation coefficient of 0.89) with that of monsoon gyre activity, which is out-of-phase with the interannual variation of SST over the NOAA Niño-3 region. © 2004 American Meteorological Society.

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Chen, T. C., Wang, S. Y., Yen, M. C., & Gallus, W. A. (2004). Role of monsoon gyre in the interannual variation of tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Weather and Forecasting, 19(4), 776–785. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0776:ROTMGI>2.0.CO;2

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