CO2 Emission Forecasting in Indonesia Until 2030: Evaluation of ETS Smoothing Prediction Models and Their Implications for Global Climate Change Mitigation

Abstract

The objective of this study is to predict CO2 emissions in Indonesia until 2030 utilizing the ETS smoothing prediction model in line with the pressing demand for viable climate change mitigation approaches. Through an assessment of the model's efficacy, several fundamental evaluation metrics have been identified. The research findings reveal that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) stands at 146,154.40, presenting an overview of the average absolute disparity between the projected and actual CO2 emission values. The Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 21,838,251,772.37 characterizes the mean of the squared variances between projections and actual values, gauging the variability of predictive errors. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) at 147,777.71, derived from the square root of MSE, reflects the degree of uncertainty in CO2 emission predictions. Simultaneously, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.24% provides an overview of the average percentage of absolute discrepancies between projections and actual values. Projections suggest that CO2 emissions could potentially reach 1 million tons in 2030. This evaluation furnishes an in-depth comprehension of the precision of the ETS smoothing model in the context of substantial emission escalation. The implications on the challenges of climate change mitigation become increasingly crucial, underscoring the immediacy of preemptive measures and sustainable policies. While the model delineates emission trends, it is imperative to acknowledge that these forecasts are subject to various influences, such as policy and technological shifts. Consequently, this study underscores the necessity for heightened awareness and the formulation of more efficacious policies to address the potential surge in CO2 emissions in the forthcoming years.