Risk of death by age and gender from CoVID-19 in Peru, March-May, 2020

Abstract

Peru implemented strict social distancing measures during the early phase of the epidemic and is now experiencing one of the largest CoVID-19 epidemics in Latin America. Estimates of disease severity are an essential indicator to inform policy decisions about the intensity and duration of interventions needed to mitigate the outbreak. Here we derive delay-adjusted case fatality risks (aCFR) of CoVID-19 in a middle-income country in South America. We utilize government-reported time series of CoVID-19 cases and deaths in Peru stratified by age group and gender. As of May 25, 2020, we estimate the aCFR for men and women at 10.8% (95%CrI: 10.5-11.1%) and 6.5% (95%CrI: 6.2-6.8%), respectively, whereas the overall aCFR was estimated at 9.1% (95%CrI: 8.9-9.3%). Our results show that senior individuals have been the most severely affected by CoVID-19, particularly men, with an aCFR of nearly 60% for those aged 80-years. We also found that men have a significantly higher cumulative morbidity ratio across most age groups (proportion test, p-value< 0.001), with the exception of those aged 0-9 years. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is generating a substantial mortality burden in Peru. Senior individuals, especially those older than 70 years, are being disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.