Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability in temperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, the paper attempts to establish whether temperature or precipitation variability affects agricultural output in the short or the long run. Second, it examined whether the effects of temperature or precipitation variability on agricultural output are homogenous across East African countries. The results reveal that variability in temperature had a long-run impact on agricultural output, while variability in precipitation had a short-run effect. The findings also reveal that the long-run temperature variability effect was heterogeneous across East African countries, and to some extent, there is also evidence for the long-run effect of precipitation variability. These results are crucial in providing decision-makers and other interested parties a thorough evaluation of climate impacts and adaptation measures aimed at increasing agricultural production and food security.