The use of one-line model and littoral drift rose concepts in predicting long term evolution of the molise coast

Abstract

The long term evolution of the Molise coast (South-East Italy) is analyzed using the Littoral Drift Rose (LDR) concept, coupled to the GENESIS numerical model, which is based on the one line contour equation. LDR has been used to define a single, climate-equivalent, time-invariant sea state, which has been supposed to entirely rule the shoreline changes. Particular attention has been drawn to a 5 km long reach of coast, just South to the mouth of the Trigno river. Results of the analysis indicate the adopted procedure, even if extremely simplified, can explain nearly 90% of the observed shoreline trend.