Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.
CITATION STYLE
Zhao, L., Oleson, K., Bou-Zeid, E., Krayenhoff, E. S., Bray, A., Zhu, Q., … Oppenheimer, M. (2021). Global multi-model projections of local urban climates. Nature Climate Change, 11(2), 152–157. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8
Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.