Improved grey model by dragonfly algorithm for chinese tourism demand forecasting

Abstract

For Chinese tourism demand forecasting, we present a novel hybrid framework, a rolling grey model optimized by dragonfly algorithm (RGM-DA). In our framework, a rolling grey model is deployed to forecast the following demand, while the weight parameter in grey model is optimized by the dragonfly algorithm. Using the Experimental data from National Bureau of Statistics of China during 1994–2015, it shows our proposed framework is superior to all considered benchmark models with higher accuracy. Moreover, our proposed framework is a promising tool for short time series modelling.