Counterfactuals

Abstract

The concept of rational counterfactuals is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real), and knowledge of the laws that govern the relationships between the antecedent and the consequent, that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking, factual statements like: ‘Greece was not financially prudent and consequently its finances are in tatters’, and with its counterfactual being: ‘Greece was financially prudent and consequently its finances are in good shape’. In order to build rational counterfactuals, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are applied. The interstate conflict example considered uses AI to create counterfactuals that are able to maximize the attainment of peace.