Long-Term Strategies for the Compatibility of the Aviation Industry with Climate Targets: An Industrial Survey and Agenda for Systems Thinkers

Abstract

Aviation is responsible for nearly 2.5% of the world’s anthropogenic carbon emissions. Despite a commitment to reduce these emissions, it is a challenging industry to decarbonise. Very little is known about the attitudes of those working in aviation towards climate change and whether they are motivated to support decarbonisation initiatives. This uncertainty highlights several threats to the industry, with cascading impact on the economy and inequality. To deal with these challenges, this study explores long-term strategies to support compatibility between the evolution of the aviation industry and climate constraints. Using surveys, in-depth interviews, and thematic analysis, this research investigates the views of professionals towards climate change, and the role that they perceive aviation plays. The results of the interviews allow the development of a system map composed of ten self-reinforcing and three balancing loops, highlighting nine leverage points to inform strategies for the industry to respond to threats. This research concludes that the aviation industry should encourage a new generation of sustainability-aware innovators to decarbonise aviation. It also concludes that collaboration both internationally and within the industry is essential, as is the need to encourage an open-minded approach to solution development. It also presents the modelling results in terms of the multilevel perspective technological transition framework and suggests ways forward for modelling using the risk–opportunity analysis.