Bus arrival time prediction method for ITS application

Abstract

It is known that stoppage times at signalized intersections cause the biggest errors in bus arrival time prediction for real-time Bus Information System (BIS) services and no particular method is proven successful so far. This study developed a prediction method that compares the predicted bus travel times from bus stop to the stop line at signalized intersections by using Kalman filtering technique with the state of green time indications of traffic signals, and then incorporates possible stoppage into a next link travel times. From field surveys and in-lab simulation, the proposed method was found superior to other conventional techniques showing an average of more than 200% improvement in prediction accuracy. © Springer-Verlag 2004.