Modelling the tactical behaviour of the Australian population in a bushfire

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the development of an agent-based model of population behaviour during a bushfire, to form the basis of a simulator that will be used as a decision-support tool for emergency managers. To ensure the validity of the simulation results, it is essential that the model, and the underlying agent architecture, are as realistic as possible. After providing some context about recent bushfires in Victoria, Australia, we justify the need for a BDI (belief, desire, intention) agent architecture. Although some tools exist to support the integration of such agents in simulations, they are infrequently used. We therefore show how an existing methodology for modelling military tactics can be adapted to this context. The contribution of this paper is two-fold: providing an agent-based model of population behaviour during bushfires; and presenting a methodology that can be used by other model designers in the field of crisis management.