Modelling Migration in the Sahel: An Alternative to Cost-Benefit Analysis

Abstract

Environmental issues pose enormous risks for all populations, but especially for the vulnerable. There have been many attempts to measure the risks and the costs of environmental episodes. Such measurement is seen in many quarters as a matter of increasing urgency as a result of the prospect of climate change. The economic approach to vulnerability measurement is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA). CBA itself is predicated on the proposition that all relevant impacts of climate change can be given a numerical value. A clear argument for this approach was offered by the late [14]. The value to be chosen is what the ``market'' value of the marginal costs and benefits. Where there is no relevant market, individuals must be able to state what they would pay to be able to stay where they are or the money they would accept as an inducement to move from where they are. In many, perhaps most, cases valuation is by no means so simple since actions are taken in response to environmental and political events. In this paper, we investigate one such case concerning the Sahel region at the edge of the Sahara.