A spatial analysis of methamphetamine lab seizures in the midwest high-intensity drug trafficking area before and after federal precursor legislation

Abstract

This chapter uses spatial zero-in flated negative binomial regression to assess the relationship between methamphetamine lab seizures and county characteristics in the states of the Midwest High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area for the years 2000-2010. I regressed meth lab seizure statistics from the El Paso Intelligence Center with county characteristics obtained from the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Two models were run to determine if the significant covariates for meth lab seizures changed as a result of the National Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act of 2005, which restricted precursor sales nationwide. The study does not find a significant difference in the covariates of the two models. In both cases, the most significant predictor of the presence of any meth lab in a county was their presence in neighboring counties, suggesting the agglomeration of methamphetamine production. In the count portion of the models, lab seizures were closely correlated with counties that were highly white but possessed the other characteristics associated with social disorganization.