Nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with pancreatic acinar cell carcinoma: A competing risk analysis

Abstract

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the probability of cancer-specific death of patients with acinar cell carcinoma (ACC) and build nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of these patients. Methods: Data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed with ACC between 2004 and 2014 were retrospectively collected. Cancer-specific mortality and competing risk mortality were evaluated. Nomograms for estimating 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS were established based on Cox regression model and Fine and Grey's model. The precision of the 1-, 2- and 3-year survival of the nomograms was evaluated and compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Results: The study cohort included 227 patients with ACC. The established nomograms were well calibrated, and had good discriminative ability, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.742 for OS prediction and 0.766 for CSS prediction. The nomograms displayed better discrimination power than 7th or 8th edition Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage systems in training set and validation set for predicting both OS and CSS. The AUC values of the nomogram predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS rates were 0.784, 0.797 and 0.805, respectively, which were higher than those of 7th or 8th edition TNM stage systems. Regard to the prediction of CSS rates, the AUC values of the nomogram were also higher than those of 7th or 8th edition TNM stage systems. Conclusion: We evaluated the 1-, 2- and 3-year OS and CSS in patients with ACC for the first time. Our nomograms showed relatively good performance and could be considered as convenient individualized predictive tools for prognosis.