Quantitative analysis and scenario prediction of energy-consumption carbon emissions in urban agglomerations in China: Case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Abstract

China's economy has entered a period of new normal, which brings an opportunity for the development of a green and low-carbon economy and environmental protection. In order to solve the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Chinese government decided to adjust and optimize the urban layout and spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, it is imperative to systematically analyse the factors affecting energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to explore the relationship between factors and carbon emission intensity. This paper determined the influencing factors and conducted a systematic comparative analysis on energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Combined with BP neural network model, scenario prediction of energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period was designed to further clarifying the key influencing factors. The results showed that energy intensity is the key influencing factor of energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In order to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, which is 0.67, it is critical to promote supply-side structural reform.