Risk and prognostic factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Spanish population with multiple sclerosis during the first five waves

Abstract

Background: Data on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) during the first wave have been published but are scarce for the remaining waves. Factors associated with COVID-19 infection of any grade are also poorly known. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence, clinical features, and risk factors for COVID-19 infection of any grade in patients with MS (pwMS) during waves 1–5. Methods: This study prospectively analyzes the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 from the first to the fifth waves by periodic case ascertainment in pwMS followed at the University Hospital of Getafe (UHG). Global and stratified cumulative incidence was calculated. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the weight of selected variables as risk and prognostic factors. Results: We included 431 pwMS, of whom 86 (20%) were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The overall cumulative incidence of confirmed cases was similar to that of Madrid (13,689 vs. 13,307 per 100,000 habitants) but 3 times higher during the first wave and slightly lower from the second to the fifth waves. The majority (86%) of pwMS developed mild forms of COVID-19. Smoking was the only factor associated with a decreased risk of SARS-CoV2 infection of any grade [odds ratio (OR) 0.491; 95% CI 0.275–0.878; p = 0.017]. Risk factors associated with severe forms were Expanded Disability Severity Scale (EDSS) ≥3.5 (OR 7.569; 95% CI 1.234–46.440) and pulmonary disease (OR 10.763; 95% CI 1.27–91.254). Conclusion: The incidence of COVID-19 was similar in this MS cohort to the general population. Smoking halved the risk of being infected. Higher EDSS and pulmonary comorbidity were associated with an increased risk of severe forms.