Prediction of mangrove recovery in natural protected areas of the Yucatan Peninsula

Abstract

Natural protected areas (NPAs) in the Yucatan Peninsula favour the conservation of mangrove forests, which are valuable ecosystems for their provision of ecosystem services. However, mangroves are vulnerable to destruction due to natural and anthropogenic pressures. Therefore, it is important to assess their spatial and temporal dynamics and the potential for deforestation and recovery of cover. In this study, we analyse and model mangrove forest cover change in six NPAs of the Yucatan Peninsula by 2025. Predictions were made using the cellular automata method (CA-Markov) based on attributes that drive rates of change (obtained Kappa coefficients between 0.78 and 0.91). Anthropogenic development was the most dominant potential driver of land use and land cover change in all NPAs except the Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Yum Balam. During the period 2005–2015, the Biosphere Reserves-Petenes and Celestún showed the greatest mangrove loss, followed by the Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Nichupté. These processes changed for the simulated period (2015–2025), where an increase in mangrove cover is projected in these protected areas. Flora and Fauna Protection Area-Términos is the only protected area where a projected transition of mangroves to anthropogenic development has been identified. Therefore, it should be considered an area vulnerable to mangrove transformation and loss.