Traceability and dynamical resistance of precursor of extreme events

Abstract

Extreme events occur in a variety of natural, technical, and societal systems and often have catastrophic consequences. Their low-probability, high-impact nature has recently triggered research into improving our understanding of generating mechanisms, providing early warnings as well as developing control strategies. For the latter to be effective, knowledge about dynamical resistance of a system prior to an extreme event is of utmost importance. Here we introduce a novel time-series-based and non-perturbative approach to efficiently monitor dynamical resistance and apply it to high-resolution observations of brain activities from 43 subjects with uncontrollable epileptic seizures. We gain surprising insights into pre-seizure dynamical resistance of brains that also provide important clues for success or failure of measures for seizure prevention. The novel resistance monitoring perspective advances our understanding of precursor dynamics in complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in refining control strategies.