O efeito contagiante do sucesso feminino: A eleição de prefeitas e o impacto sobre as candidaturas nos próximos pleitos

Abstract

This article studies the low presence of women in Brazilian politics. We test whether the election of a female mayor increases the number of women running for the next mayoral election in the same municipality. The analysis of this contagion effect engages in a dialogue with other research focusing on the presentation and selection of female candidates as one of the decisive filters hindering the election of more women in popular elections. This study is based on the municipal elections for mayor in Brazil between 2000 and 2012. We conclude that in the municipalities in which a female mayor was elected, the probability of having first-time female candidates in the next election is 1.8 times higher than in the last electoral contest. Another finding is that men who contest elections react differently to the election of a female mayor. The research also suggests that, in addition to well-known factors such as institutional arrangements or socioeconomic constraints, key events such as victory of women in majority elections trigger feedback mechanisms that result in the expansion of women’s presence in politics.