Maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) of potential geographical distributions of lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in China

Abstract

Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is one of the most destructive pests of grape in the Palearctic region. The potential geographical distribution of this pest is important to agriculture security. In this study, Maxent and ArcGIS were used to project the potential geographical distribution of L. botrana in China under the current climate. The result indicated that L. botrana was suitable in most parts of middle and southern China and the Maxent model was highly accurate for the AUC value of 0.970. Jackknife analysis revealed that low temperature influence the potential distribution of L. botrana. This study would be a decision-support of surveillance and quarantine measures. © 2012 IFIP Federation for Information Processing.