Selection of the appropriate methodology for the deterministic seismic hazard assessment on the territory of the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

This paper presents a discussion regarding the most common approaches to the deterministic seismic hazard analysis, as well as their relation with the probabilistic hazard analysis. Different methodologies for estimation of the strong earthquake ground motion at a site of interest on the territory of the Republic of Serbia are also discussed. When generation of the synthetic ground motion time histories on the territory of the Republic of Serbia is concerned, a method developed by Trifunac and his associates is suggested having in mind that this approach uses only those input parameters that can be easily and accurately defined while at the same time being able to model all properties of strong earthquake ground motion that are presently known as well as to consider the probabilistic nature of earthquake occurrence.U ovom radu diskutovani su najcesci pristupi deterministickoj analizi seizmickog hazarda, kao i njihov odnos sa probabilistickom analizom hazarda. Diskutovane su takodje i razlicite metodologije za ocenjivanje jakog kretanja tla usled zemljotresa za lokaciju od interesa na teritoriji Republike Srbije. Kada je u pitanju generisanje sintetickih vremenskih istorija kretanja tla na teritoriji Republike Srbije, predlozeno je koriscenje metode koju je razvio Trifunac sa svojim saradnicima, imajuci u vidu da ovaj pristup koristi samo one ulazne parametre koje je moguce jednostavno a tacno definisati, dok istovremeno omogucava modelovanje svih trenutno poznatih osobina jakog kretanja tla usled zemljotresa, kao i uzimanje u obzir probabilisticke prirode pojave zemljotresa.