Probabilistic semantics and pragmatics for the language of uncertainty

Abstract

The idea that the probability of a conditional is the corresponding conditional probability has led something of an embattled existence in philosophy and linguistics. Part of the reason for the reluctance to embrace it has to do with certain technical difficulties (especially triviality). Even though solutions to the triviality problem are known to exist, their widespread adoption is hindered by their narrow range of data coverage and unclear relationship to established frameworks for modeling the dynamics of belief and conversation. This paper considers the case of Bernoulli models and proposes steps towards broadening the coverage of their application.