Russia and the Gulf States: Between West and East

Abstract

Western states have enjoyed a near monopoly of external military, political and economic patronage of Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf states. The United States has been the dominant actor but the former imperial powers, the UK and France, have retained important strategic and economic assets in the region. The Soviet Union, and then the Russian Federation in the 1990s and 2000s, was either excluded or had minimal influence. During the 2010s, Russia made significant breakthroughs in developing closer economic, political and security relations with the Gulf states. This has raised concerns in the West, particularly when seen in the context of a much increased economic presence of China in the region. This chapter will first address what the causes are for this shift in the strategic orientation of the Gulf states. This will be viewed from two axes: whether this is to be understood as a result of structural shifts in the global balance of power or whether it is more due to differing leaderships and personalities. The second axis is that of the role of ideas and ideology as against strictly material economic and strategic factors. The key question will be whether the Gulf region is shifting towards a more ‘penetrated system’, where multiple external powers vie for power and influence, or whether the continued Western dominance can be expected to be durable and long-lasting.