Evolution of the global agricultural trade network and policy implications for China

Abstract

Global agricultural trade plays an essential role in balancing supply and demand regarding agricultural products worldwide. Based on complex network theory, two types of agricultural trade networks weighted by the physical quantity and monetary value were built. In both networks, eight groups of agricultural products showed diverse variation in time and space. During 1986 to 2016, the total physical trade increased by 2.55 times with a gradual growth process, and total monetary value increased 1.98 times with fluctuation. The cumulative distribution of node degree and strength followed power-law distribution. Scale expansion and structure complexity of both networks reflected heterogeneity between nodes and the trend of agricultural economic globalization. Meeting demand and seeking greater returns are the main drivers of global agricultural trade development. Mainly developed countries occupied the important positions in the global agricultural trade network, but some emerging economies such as China, Brazil, and India became important sources of demand and supply. China not only needs to fully use international resources to meet demand for agricultural products, but also needs to ensure its own food security through multiple countermeasures.