Space-time scan statistics of 2007-2013 dengue incidence in Cimahi city, Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue fever threatens more than 200 million people in Indonesia. The disease has spread to over 400 of Indonesia’s 497 districts, 26 of which have been declared hyper-endemic. These districts are all situated in West Java, the most densely populated province in the country. A study was conducted to detect clusters of dengue incidence during 2007-2013 in Cimahi City, which is situated in the Bandung metropolitan area in West Java. A temporal-spatial analysis based on population data from the local Bureau of Statistics, and monthly analysis of dengue incidence from the local Municipality Health Office, were performed using SaTScan™. This retrospective space-time analysis with a Poisson distribution model and monthly precision revealed 24 significant clusters (P<0.001) throughout the seven-year study period. The most likely cluster was detected in the centre of Cimahi City and followed as it moved to the northern part of the city. Several primary and secondary clusters were identified in villages surrounding Cimahi City over time, and our conclusion is that we identified a dynamic spread of dengue fever initiated from the city centre to surrounding areas during the study period. In general, clusters were more common in the first quarter of each year. An in-depth investigation to understand relevant risk factors in high-risk areas in Cimahi city is encouraged.