Climate change vulnerability of olive oil groves in dry areas of tunisia: Case study in the governorate of médenine

Abstract

Climate projections for Tunisia show a rise in temperature by 2020 of 1.1 degrees Celsius (°C) and 2.1 °C in 2050. The south of the country is much more of a concern. Rainfall is projected to decrease between 10% in the north and 30% in the south over the same period. In the province of Médenine, in Southern Tunisia, where the bio-climate is dry (rainfall ranging from 100 to 200 mm), rain-fed olive tree cropping dominates (more than 80%) the land-use system. The aim of this work is to conduct a prospective study on the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of olive growing orchard areas to be used as guidelines for decision-making in climate change-related adaptation programs. Presently, 73% of olive groves are located in highly suitable conditions, but this figure will drop to only 8.5% by 2020 and 7.9% in 2050, while groves located in moderately suitable conditions will change from its current 19.3% to 78.2% and then 67.4%, in the same time frame. Orchards found in low to marginal conditions, which represents only 7.7% today, will increase to 13.3% and further to 24.7%, in 2020 and 2050 respectively. Although the olive tree is well known for being able to grow in harsh environments, climate change is expected to negatively influence the potential for expanding the plantation of these trees under exclusively rain-fed conditions. Therefore, planners and decision-makers need to discourage farmers from growing olive trees in large areas of the province where the rainfall amount is expected to fall by large amounts in the coming decades.