Scenarios: Driving forces and policies

Abstract

Modelling the impact of policies is possible only if these policies themselves are defined to some extent. Therefore, potential policies affecting multifunctional land use are grouped into policy cases around a number of central themes. However, a counterfactual is needed in order to know what the situation in the target year would be in the absence of policy change. Several approaches to designing scenarios for this counterfactual are discussed, and the chosen approach is elaborated into a description of baseline scenarios to be used in the project. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008.