Independent pretreatment predictors of Graves' disease outcome

Abstract

Background and Objective: Current treatment options of Graves' disease (GD) are often unsatisfactory. This study aimed at determining the independent baseline predictors of medical treatment failure in GD. Material and Methods: A retrospective study of 194 patients with GD was carried out. According to the disease outcome, patients were divided into groups. The remission group included the patients who achieved long-term remission after initial antithyroid drug (ATD) treatment with no relapse (group 1) or after 2 or 3 courses of ATD therapy (group 2). The treatment failure group included the patients who underwent thyroid ablation due to relapse (group 3) or without ATD withdrawal (group 4). Results: A family history of thyroid disorders was associated with greater odds of failure (P=0.046). Higher thyrotropin receptor antibodies (TRAb) levels and a larger goiter size (grade 2/ grade 3) at the onset of the disease were both independently associated with a greater likelihood of failure. The initial TRAb concentration of 30.2 U/L and the TRAb concentration of 12.97 U/L at the end of ATD therapy were found to be the best cutoff values predicting the treatment failure. A hypoechogenic thyroid after ATD therapy, but not before therapy, increased the likelihood of failure by nearly 7.5 times (P<0.001). Conclusions: Higher TRAb levels and a larger goiter size at the onset of the disease were found to be the independent predictors of medical treatment failure in GD.