Predicting of elderly population structure and density by a novel grey fractional-order model with theta residual optimization: a case study of Shanghai City, China

Abstract

Background: Accurately predicting the future development trend of population aging is conducive to accelerating the development of the elderly care industry. This study constructed a combined optimization grey prediction model to predict the structure and density of elderly population. Methods: In this paper, a GT-FGM model is proposed, which combines Theta residual optimization with fractional-order accumulation operator. Fractional-order accumulation can effectively weaken the randomness of the original data sequence. Meanwhile, Theta residual optimization can adjust parameter by minimizing the mean absolute error. And the population statistics of Shanghai city from 2006 to 2020 were selected for prediction analysis. By comparing with the other traditional grey prediction methods, three representative error indexes (MAE, MAPE, RMSE) were conducting for error analysis. Results: Compared with the FGM model, GM (1,1) model, Verhulst model, Logistic model, SES and other classical prediction methods, the GT-FGM model shows significant forecasting advantages, and its multi-step rolling prediction accuracy is superior to other prediction methods. The results show that the elderly population density in nine districts in Shanghai will exceed 0.5 by 2030, among which Huangpu District has the highest elderly population density, reaching 0.6825. There has been a steady increase in the elderly population over the age of 60. Conclusions: The GT-FGM model can improve the prediction accuracy effectively. The elderly population in Shanghai shows a steady growth trend on the whole, and the differences between districts are obvious. The government should build a modern pension industry system according to the aging degree of the population in each region, and promote the balanced development of each region.