Development of a predictive model for on-time arrival flight of airliner by discovering correlation between flight and weather data

Abstract

An important business of airlines is to get customer satisfaction. Due to bad weather, a mechanical reason, and the late arrival of the aircraft to the point of departure, flights delay and lead to customer dissatisfaction. A predictive model of on-time arrival flight is proposed with using flight data and weather data. The key research in this paper is to discover the correlation between flight data and weather data. The relation between pressure pattern and flight data of Peach Aviation, which is LCC (low-cost carrier) in Japan, are clarified, and it is found that the sea-level pressures of 3 weather observation spots, which are Wakkanai as the most northern spot, Minami-Torishima as the most eastern spot, and Yonagunijima as the most western spot, can classify the pressure patterns. As a result, on-time arrival fight is predicted at 77% of the accuracy with using Random Forest Classifier of machine learning. Furthermore, feasibility of the predictive model is evaluated by developing a tool of on-time arrival flight prediction.