Objective: To build scenarios and analyze the impact of social distancing policies on the spread of COVID-19 and the need for intensive care unit beds. Methods: Three dissemination scenarios were built according to level of adherence to social distancing measures in the context of Brazil’s Federal District, based on a dynamic transition compartmental model and Monte Carlo simulations. The model’s parameter values were based on official sources, indexed bibliographic databases and public data repositories. Results: The favorable scenario, with constant 58% adherence to social distancing, estimated a peak of 189 (interquartile range [IQR]: 57 - 394) ICU hospitalizations on March 3rd 2021. Absence of social distancing would result in an unfavorable scenario with a peak of 6,214 (IQR: 4,618 - 8,415) ICU hospitalizations probably as soon as July 14th 2020. Conclusion: The projections indicate the high impact of social distancing measures and emphasize the applicability of public indicators for COVID-19 monitoring.
CITATION STYLE
Zimmermann, I., Sanchez, M., Brant, J., & Alves, D. (2020). Projection of COVID-19 intensive care hospitalizations in the Federal District, Brazil: An analysis of the impact of social distancing measures. Epidemiologia e Servicos de Saude, 29(5). https://doi.org/10.1590/S1679-49742020000500022
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