Monkeypox Outbreak Analysis: An Extensive Study Using Machine Learning Models and Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The sudden unexpected rise in monkeypox cases worldwide has become an increasing concern. The zoonotic disease characterized by smallpox-like symptoms has already spread to nearly twenty countries and several continents and is labeled a potential pandemic by experts. monkeypox infections do not have specific treatments. However, since smallpox viruses are similar to monkeypox viruses administering antiviral drugs and vaccines against smallpox could be used to prevent and treat monkeypox. Since the disease is becoming a global concern, it is necessary to analyze its impact and population health. Analyzing key outcomes, such as the number of people infected, deaths, medical visits, hospitalizations, etc., could play a significant role in preventing the spread. In this study, we analyze the spread of the monkeypox virus across different countries using machine learning techniques such as linear regression (LR), decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), elastic net regression (EN), artificial neural networks (ANN), and convolutional neural networks (CNN). Our study shows that CNNs perform the best, and the performance of these models is evaluated using statistical parameters such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and R-squared error (R2). The study also presents a time-series-based analysis using autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) and seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA) models for measuring the events over time. Comprehending the spread can lead to understanding the risk, which may be used to prevent further spread and may enable timely and effective treatment.