Risk in decision-oriented and self-changing society

Abstract

Western industrial societies are characterised (historically) by a high measure of social security, which is underpinned by highly diverse safety nets. In addition, the life expectancy of the population is rising steadily because a comprehensive healthcare system either prevents plagues, epidemics and many other illnesses or sharply reduces their impact. In a society which has not faced a serious threat of war for decades it is remarkable that fear of the future has become a public issue and a reason for protests against new technologies. We might well ask how the future has come to be essentially interpreted in terms of risk rather than progress. But risk itself is a form of communication which is rich in preconditions. Risk is a challenge to calculate in the present an unknown future. Since the things that can happen depend on decisions to be taken in the present, there is a "multiple stage arrangement of contingency" (Luhmann): the possibility of damage is created incidentally, thus avoidably. Decisions under risk are paradox to the extent that they attempt to include the unknown in considerations. Decisions are to be made on matters, which, in principle, cannot be decided. We always speak of communication of risks whenever this construction is used to mark out the future and missing knowledge in situations requiring decisions. Decisions with regard to uncertainty can only be made as a part of social of processes or hypothetical situations. Processing uncertainty, ambiguity and impossibility is the most distinctive characteristic of future-oriented decision making and risk communication. We should distinguish risk from danger, but we must also make a distinction between who decides about risk and those who are affected by this decision. The emergence of risk society is embedded into three general transformations in modern societies which are affecting our lives today. Each is connected to the increasing influence of science and technology, although not wholly determined by them. The first transformation can be called the end of nature; and the second the end of tradition and the third facing the unknown. © 2009 Springer Netherlands.