The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation

Abstract

Understanding what drove Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melt during the last deglaciation (21-7 ka) can help constrain how sensitive contemporary ice sheets are to greenhouse gas (GHGs) changes. The roles of orbital forcing and GHGs in the deglaciation have previously been modeled but not yet quantified. Here for the first time we calculate the relative effect of these forcings on the North American deglaciation by driving a dynamical ice sheet model (GLIMMER-CISM) with a set of unaccelerated transient deglacial simulations with a full primitive equation-based ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FAMOUS). We find that by 9 ka, orbital forcing has caused 50% of the deglaciation, GHG 30%, and the interaction between the two 20%. Orbital forcing starts affecting the ice volume at 19 ka, 2000 years before CO2 starts increasing in our experiments, a delay which partly controls their relative effect. Key Points We decompose the forcings of North American ice volume changes during the last deglaciation Orbital forcing drives 50%, greenhouse gases 30%, and forcing interactions 20% of the deglaciation The difference in timing of the forcings partly explains their relative contribution.