The Utility of Land-Surface Model Simulations to Provide Drought Information in a Water Management Context Using Global and Local Forcing Datasets

Abstract

Drought diagnosis and forecasting are fundamental issues regarding hydrological management in Spain, where recurrent water scarcity periods are normal. Land-surface models (LSMs) could provide relevant information for water managers on how drought conditions evolve. Here, we explore the usefulness of LSMs driven by atmospheric analyses with different resolutions and accuracies in simulating drought and its propagation to precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow through the system. We perform simulations for the 1980-2014 period with SASER (5 km resolution) and LEAFHYDRO (2.5 km resolution), which are forced by the Spanish SAFRAN dataset (at 5km and 30km resolutions), and the global eartH2Observe datasets at 0.25 degrees (including the MSWEP precipitation dataset). We produce standardized indices for precipitation (SPI), soil moisture (SSMI) and streamflow (SSI). The results show that the model structure uncertainty remains an important issue in current generation large-scale hydrological simulations based on LSMs. This is true for both the SSMI and SSI. The differences between the simulated SSMI and SSI are large, and the propagation scales for drought regarding both soil moisture and streamflow are overly dependent on the model structure. Forcing datasets have an impact on the uncertainty of the results but, in general, this impact is not as large as the uncertainty due to model formulation. Concerning the global products, the precipitation product that includes satellite observations (MSWEP) represents a large improvement compared with the product that does not.