Monitoring the responses of deciduous forest phenology to 2000–2018 climatic anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Monitoring the phenological responses of deciduous forests to climate is important, due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events associated with climate change and global warming, which will in turn affect vegetation seasonality. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the response of deciduous forests to climatic anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, using satellite‐derived phenological metrics from the Copernicus Global Land Service Leaf Area Index, and multisource climatic datasets for 2000–2018 at resolutions of 0.1°. Thereafter, we assessed the impact of extreme heatwaves and droughts on this deciduous forest phenology. We assumed that changes in the deciduous forest phenology in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 2000–2018 were monotonic, and that temperature and precipitation were the main climatic drivers. Analyses of partial correlations of phenological metrics with the timing of the start of the season (SoS), end of the season (EoS), and climatic variables indicated that changes in preseason temperature played a stronger role than precipitation in affecting the interannual variability of SoS anomalies: the higher the temperature, the earlier the SoS in most deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere (mean correlation coefficient of –0.31). Correlations between the SoS and temperature were significantly negative in 57% of the forests, and significantly positive in 15% of the forests (P < 0.05). Both temperature and precipitation contributed to the advance and delay of the EoS. A later EoS was significantly correlated with a positive Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI) at the regional scale (~30% of deciduous forests). The timings of the EoS and SoS shifted by > 20 d in response to heatwaves throughout most of Europe in 2003, and in the United States of America in 2012. This study contributes to improve our understanding of the phenological responses of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere to climate change and extreme climate events.