Development and application of corn model for climate change impact assessment and decision support system: Enabling philippine farmers adapt to climate variability

Abstract

This purpose of this paper is to present results of a university led research and extension undertaking in providing solution to corn farming in coping with climate variability. Methods employed were science tools such as simulation and climate modelling, integration of automated weather station for real-time weather data inputs and Short Messaging System (SMS) as decision support to government workers and farmers. Specifically it aimed to develop a localized corn model; assess future corn production under climate change scenarios and develop decision support system for corn production. A local model was developed for climate change assessments and development of decision support for corn farmers. The model was able to predict the observed data on yield and timing of phenological events from the actual experiments and actual farmer's field with high goodness of fit ranging from 91 to 98% for the calibration and 86 to 97% for the validation process. Moreover, applications of the model for climate change assessments indicated that corn yield in northern Philippines would be reduced by up to 44% in 2020 and 35% in 2050 due to changes in rainfall amount and rise in temperature which are indicators of climate change. The model was automated to provide a quick answers to farmer's operational decision making and crop and weather advisories for strategic and policy decision support by government agencies.