A comparative study on choice modeling framework for evacuation simulation

Abstract

A choice modeling framework for evacuation simulation is needed for a better understanding of the human choice behavior. Facing with the debate between bounded and full rationality, this study builds upon different frameworks and tests them on a same set of choice data collected through virtual evacuation experiment. After comparisons, it is found that there is no significant performance difference between the two kinds of rationality. Additionally, an algorithm comparing pairs of alternatives in choice process performs much better than an algorithm evaluating individual alternatives. An improved utility maximizing model framework and an overall performance decline similar as the forgeting curve are proposed. Finally, it is concluded that the proposed choice model comparing pairs with its great robustness under varying number of alternatives is a proper choice for evacuation simulation. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.