Managing Complexity in Social Systems: Leverage Points for Policy and Strategy

Abstract

Why do policies and strategies often fail, and what can be done about it? How can complexity be managed in cases where it cannot be reduced? The answers to these questions are anything but trivial, and can only be found by combining insights from complexity science, system dynamics, system theory and systems thinking. Rooted in the seminal works of Gregory Bateson, Jay Forrester, Donella Meadows, Peter Senge, W. Brian Arthur, John Sterman and Thomas Schelling, this book bridges the gap between rigorous science and real-life experience to explore the potential and limitations of leverage points in implementing policies and strategies. It also presents diagnostic tools to help recognize system archetypes, as well as the powerful language of stock and flow diagrams, which allows us to think in terms of circular causality. These tools are subsequently employed to thoroughly analyze particularly thorny problems such as global climate change, the tragedy of the commons, path dependence, diffusion of innovations, and exponential growth of inequality. Intro; Foreword; Contents; About the Author; 1: Prelude: Scientific Journey into a Strange Paradigm; References; Part I: From Logic to Circular Causality; 2: Perceiving Events, Patterns, and Structure; Perceiving Events; Perceiving Patterns; Perceiving Structures; References; 3: Homeostasis, Complexity, Emergence, and Purposeful Behavior; Homeostasis; Complexity and Emergence; Purposeful Behavior; References; 4: Decision and Forecast: The Cassandra Paradox; Unpredictability in Science; Contradiction Between Prediction and Choice; Typology of Forecast; Forecasting Patterns Managerial Decision-MakingReferences; Part II: Describing and Understanding Dynamics of Social Systems; 5: Language, Syntax, and Semantics for Describing Dynamics of Systems; Stock; Flow; Positive and Negative Causal Link; Reinforcing and Balancing Causal Loop; Delay; Expressing Structures of Systems; Syntax and Semantics of SFD; The Importance of Sources and Sinks; References; 6: Confusing Stocks with Flows: The Carbon Credit Fallacy; References; 7: Leverage Points as Technology to Change Problematic Dynamics; Size of Stocks; Size of Flows; Lengths of Delays Purpose and Strength of Balancing Causal LoopsStrength of Reinforcing Causal Loops; Information as Causal Links; Rules and Structure of the System; Sources and Sinks; References; 8: Sensitivity and Uncertainty: Locust Plagues and Price Dynamics of Commodities; References; 9: Generic Structures, Systems Archetypes, and Theories; References; Part III: Managing Intraorganizational Phenomena; 10: Shifting the Burden: When Organizations Become Addicted; References; 11: Accidental Adversaries: The Enigma of Sustained Cooperation; References 12: Adaptation: Drifting Goals, Invisible Hand, and BreastfeedingReferences; 13: Limits to Growth: Network Effect and Attractiveness Principle; References; 14: Growth and Underinvestment: Aligning Performance and Resources; References; Part IV: Managing Trans-organizational Phenomena; 15: Policy Resistance: Rebound Effect and Other Paradoxes; References; 16: Escalation: The Strength of Fear; References; 17: Diffusion of Innovations: The Much Sought After Tipping Point; References; 18: Market for Lemons: When Dishonesty Prevails; References; 19: The Commons: A Tragedy?; References 20: Path Dependence: Segregation, Increasing Returns, Success to the SuccessfulReferences; Part V: Coda: The Sense of Possibility; 21: Managing Complexity; From Social Skills to Systems Skills; The Times of the Antikythera Mechanism Are Past; In Search of a Shared Problem; Follow the Causes; Communicate in Stock and Flow Diagram Language; Itś the Leverage Points; Invest in Flexibility; References; Index