Population viability analysis of plant species with extremely small populations: Methods, problems and prospects

Abstract

Environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance have a significant impact on population persistence. Therefore, it is essential to predict population dynamics under multiple stresses. Population viability analysis (PVA) is an effective method for assessing threats, extinction risk and bottlenecks, and the likelihood of recovery. By combining data and models, PVA accommodates different types of variables and can offer appropriate advice for conservation. However, demographic parameters of plant species with extremely small populations are difficult to estimate, which makes the statistical power of these models quite low. Here, we offer some underlying PVA methods for plant species with extremely small populations using non-statistical theory with small sample sizes and population adaptive potential analysis. Methods based on the non-statistical theory can enhance the accuracy of parameter estimation in small populations, while the eco-evolutionary elements help to uncover mechanisms of population adaptation and predict population dynamics. These methods provide more appropriate guidance for the conservation of plant species with extremely small population sizes.